01.16.19

By: Ian Kullgren
Source: Politico

House Democrats call Trump's bluff on minimum-wage hike

House Democrats, pressing ahead on one of their more ambitious agenda items, introduced a bill Wednesday to more than double the federal minimum wage.

The legislation, which would phase in a $15 hourly minimum over a period of six years, enunciates a policy difference with Republicans ahead of the 2020 presidential election. But a bipartisan compromise may be possible, given President Donald Trump's past support for a minimum-wage hike.

The legislation has the support of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), and House Education and Labor Chairman Bobby Scott (D-Va.).

The last time Congress raised the federal hourly minimum, now $7.25, was in 2007, making Barack Obama the first president since Ronald Reagan not to preside over a minimum-wage increase. Opposition by congressional Republicans killed Obama's proposed hikes, but in the 2016 presidential election candidate Trump ended up supporting a hike in the hourly minimum to $10,after first proposing the minimum wage's elimination.

Trump hasn't discussed the matter publicly since he entered office, but with their new House majority, Democrats are well-positioned to call his bluff in the Republican-controlled Senate. Resistance among Senate Republicans remains strong, but if Trump lent support to a minimum-wage hike it might buckle.

If history is any guide, Democrats would likely have to append to any wage hike concessions for business, as they did the past three times Congress raised the wage minimum. One potential advantage Democrats enjoy this time is that several GOP senators hail from states that have raised their hourly minimums above the federal minimum, potentially weakening those states' ability to attract businesses.

It's unclear, though, whether Democrats would be willing to compromise. Unions say they won’t budge from $15, and note that the 2017 GOP tax bill has already provided plenty of breaks to businesses.

“The political change that has been sweeping the country requires bold demands that are uncompromising,” said Mary Kay Henry, president of SEIU. “We think there’s total justification and plenty of money.”

Some business lobbyists say they're willing to consider an increase this time, though not to $15.

“In times past we always would say, ‘Wait, wait a minute,‘” Tom Donohue, president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, told reporters last week. “These are different times. We’re going to listen. … Some states have got legitimate concerns here.“

The legislation comes amid strong public support for raising the minimum wage. Polls show nearly three-quarters of voters support an increase, though there’s disagreement over the exact proportion. Young voters have indicated the minimum wage will be a driving issue for them in 2020.